Expert judgment elicitation is often required in probabilistic decision making and the evaluation of risk. One measure of the quality of probability distributions given by experts is calibration-the ...

We give a large-sample analysis of the minimal coverage probability of the usual confidence intervals for regression parameters when the underlying model is chosen by a "conservative" (or ...

Traders in bonds and credit default swaps are bombarded with information on the default probabilities implied by credit spreads using a simple ratio. This ratio predicts that the credit spread will be ...